| Model | 2020-07-01 | 2020-08-01 | 2020-09-01 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Forecasts | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| ARIMA Model | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| STIF Model | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Consensus Forecast | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Note: | |||
| *Short-term models provide forecasts over a 3 month horizon. | |||
| *Consensus Model represents an average of the ARIMA, Adjusted and STIF Models. |
| Date | Baseline | Alternative (Downside) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-01 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 2020-06-01 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 2020-09-01 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| 2020-12-01 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 2021-03-01 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| 2021-06-01 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 2021-09-01 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| 2021-12-01 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| 2022-03-01 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2022-06-01 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 2022-09-01 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| 2022-12-01 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Note: | ||
| *Medium-term models provide forecasts over a 3 year horizon (each period is a quarterly average). | ||
| *Alternative Scenario assesses pass-through risks associated with exchange rate depreciation and fuel price increases on inflation. |