Commodities

Column

Brent Crude Oil Futures - Continuous Contract

Gold Futures - Continuous Contract

Column

Brent Crude Oil Price \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

-12.11%

Gold Price \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

-0.75%

Wheat Price \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

-2.83%

Maize Price \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

2.22%

Column

Wheat Futures - Continuous Contract

Maize Futures - Continuous Contract

South Africa

Column

Rand Exchange Rates

SA Consumer Inflation

SA Industrial Production Growth

Column

USD-ZAR \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

-0.55%

EUR-ZAR \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

-0.02%

GBP-ZAR \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

4.05%

SA Consumer Inflation (Year-on-Year)

2.14%

SA Industrial Production Growth (Year-on-Year)

-12.18%

Domestic Inflation

Column

Namibia Consumer Inflation

Slate Account

Inflation Forecasts (Components Based)

Column

Annual Inflation Rate (Latest Month)

2.09%

Annual Average Inflation (Year to Date)

2.11%

Month-on-Month Inflation Rate (Latest Month)

0.18%

Petrol Pump Price \(\small \Delta\) (Latest Month)

100 cents

Column

Short Term Forecast Models

Model 2020-07-01 2020-08-01 2020-09-01
Adjusted Forecasts 2.1 2.2 2.3
ARIMA Model 2.2 2.4 2.5
STIF Model 2.5 2.6 2.7
Consensus Forecast 2.3 2.4 2.5
Note:
*Short-term models provide forecasts over a 3 month horizon.
*Consensus Model represents an average of the ARIMA, Adjusted and STIF Models.

Medium Term Forecast Models

Date Baseline Alternative (Downside)
2020-03-01 2.3 2.3
2020-06-01 1.9 1.9
2020-09-01 2.1 2.5
2020-12-01 2.2 2.8
2021-03-01 2.5 2.9
2021-06-01 2.4 2.8
2021-09-01 2.5 2.6
2021-12-01 2.7 2.7
2022-03-01 3.0 3.2
2022-06-01 2.9 3.0
2022-09-01 2.7 2.9
2022-12-01 2.5 2.6
Note:
*Medium-term models provide forecasts over a 3 year horizon (each period is a quarterly average).
*Alternative Scenario assesses pass-through risks associated with exchange rate depreciation and fuel price increases on inflation.

Domestic PSCE

Column

Total PSCE Growth

Credit to Individuals

Credit to Businesses

Column

PSCE % \(\small \Delta\) (Year-on-Year)

2.83%

PSCE % \(\small \Delta\) (Annual Average for Current Year)

3.57%

Business Credit % \(\small \Delta\) (Annual Average for Current Year)

0.32%

Household Credit % \(\small \Delta\) (Annual Average for Current Year)

6.09%

Column

Credit forecasts by borrower groups

Credit forecasts by borrowing type

BoP

Column

Trade Balance

Current Account

Import Cover

NEER-REER

Column

Trade Balance (% of GDP, Current Year)

-9.4%

Current Account Balance (% of GDP, Current Year)

2.2%

Import Cover (Current Year)

5.7 Months

Month-on-Month % \(\small \Delta\) in NEER (Latest Month)

0.28%

Month-on-Month % \(\small \Delta\) in REER (Latest Month)

0.64%

Financial Stability

Column

Financial Stability Index

VIX

House Price Index

Non-Performing Loans

Column

Financial Stability Index (Latest Quarter)

0.56

VIX % \(\small \Delta\) (Month-to-Date)

-1.8%

House Price Index % \(\small \Delta\) (Year-on-Year, Latest Month)

-3.37%

NPL Ratio (Latest Quarter)

5.2%

Economic Growth

Column

Quarterly Real GDP

Annual Growth Forecasts

Output Gap

Column

Quarterly GDP Growth (Latest Quarter)

-0.76%

Annual GDP Growth Forecast (Current Year)

-7.8%

Output Gap Forecast (Current Year)

-4.53%

Annual GDP Growth Forecast (Baseline, Next Year)

2.1%

Annual GDP Growth Forecast (Worst Case, Next Year)

1.9%

Fiscal Outlook

Column

Debt Sustainability Analysis Projections

Fiscal Stance

Column

Gross Financing Requirements (Current Year)

14.7%

Nominal Gross Public Debt (Current Year)

67.5%

Primary Balance (Current Year)

-7.6%

Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (Current Year)

-7.8%